The World in 2050

The World in 2050

Written by OffshoreWorld
Thursday, 04 August 2011
The World in 2050 Interview to Laurence C. Smith By Giovanni Caporaso Does the much-heralded growth in economic muscle of the emerging economies provide an opportunity or pose a threat? The rapid economic growth of emerging countries such as China and India—together with continued more moderate growth in today’s advanced economies—could have serious long-term consequences for global energy consumption and carbon emissions. How will be the World in 2050 with the global warming? Maybe we could live in Antarctica as is proposing the Principality of West Antarctic ? We interview Laurence C. Smith author of the book “The World in 2050” a UCLA geography professor, explores megatrends through computer model projections to describe with reasonable scientific credibility the World in 2050. In your book "The World in 2050" you predict a migration to the north in the next years, due to the global warming. Do you think that the will be a colonization of the North Pole? The vast majority of population growth between now and 2050 will be in the developing world of Asia and Africa. However, on a proportional basis the most of the Northern Rim countries or "NORCs", as I call them, are also growing. The big surprise is Canada, where human population is projected to grow more than +30% by 2050, a growth rate nearly as fast as India but the absolute numbers are still very small. There will never be human colonization of the North Pole because it is an ocean. Which population will start the immigration, the poorest? This is decided by the host countries. All of the NORCs (U.S.A, Canada, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia) already enjoy more petitions from prospective migrants than they are willing to admit. This immigration what will represent in economical terms for the industrialized countries? It is the single most important factor determining which developed NORC countries will continue to expand their populations and which one will not. Foreign immigration explains much of Canada's population growth, for example, whereas the population of Russia is projected to decline owing to much less favorable immigration policy. Is your vision of "The World in 2050" based on fantasy or research? It is based almost entirely on scientific research. The book is not based on fantasy or my imagination, but rather long term projections of big trends in population demographics, economic growth, natural resource availability, globalization, and climate change. Can you predict a little the World in 2100? Our world in 2050 will see the arrival of over 9 billion people on Earth, with mighty new poles of economic power in China, India and other parts of what is today the developing world. Together with exciting advances in energy technology, the demand for natural gas, oil, water, metals, and certain minerals will be enormous. Devastating negative impacts of climate change will be strongly apparent around much of the world. Total world population will likely still be growing, but at a slower rate than today. New economic opportunities, favorable demographics, globalized trades, abundant natural resources, and somewhat milder wintered will all combine to make the northern NORC countries increasingly important and valued by the rest of the world.
Last Updated ( Thursday, 04 August 2011 )